Will Bangladesh do the course correction with Trump at the helm of global politics?

by Dr.  Jajati K Pattnaik

Bangladesh may mellow itself down after Donald Trump’s electoral victory. The symptoms of the changed attitude are evident from Muhammad Yunus’ congratulatory messages to Trump. Trump’s clear condemnation of the recent violence against minorities in Bangladesh and the ouster of a democratically elected leader, Sheikh Hasina, during his election campaign indicate the clarity of intent. He never minces his words. He does what he thinks ought to be done for global peace. The world did not see any significant war during his last presidency.

The Abraham Accord was his political and diplomatic masterstroke. After his electoral defeat in 2020, the fiasco in Afghanistan, the Russia-Ukraine War, the conflict in Gaza, rising inflation, etc., acquired unceasing constancy. Under President Joe Biden, South Asia again became a hotbed of conflict, regime change, etc.

The stories of Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bangladesh and Pakistan became unsavoury. Muhammad Yunus was force-fit by destabilising the relatively quiet Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina. The masterminds of the Bangladesh conflict were celebrated in the US. Yunus’ maiden visit to the US after he was appointed as the head of the unelected caretaker government projected those masterminds of irreparable disaster as leaders of change. He did not utter a word of condemnation for the atrocities inflicted on the Bangladeshi Hindus and other minorities.

Now that Trump has been elected, Yunus expresses platitudes such as a ‘peaceful and inclusive society’, peace, harmony, stability, prospect, collaboration, ‘peace-loving people of Bangladesh’, etc. This will not pay him or his domestic and overseas collaborators any dividends. Now, he has to steady the patchwork, unelected government full of opportunists and ideologically inebriated radicals.

Is the political fiasco in Bangladesh over yet?

Recovery lies in return to democracy. Election is not the priority for the interim government under the stewardship of Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus. Constitutional reform is in its itinerary. But is it not a travesty that constitutional reforms are expected from the unelected? Will the people accept them? Will they be the recipe for more unrest and instability? Releasing a few radicals and hotheads from the prison is not the same as constitutional reform. The latter is more complex and demands debates, consensus and critical assessment. It is not possible without the will of the people expressed through the elected representatives.

The recent banning of the Awami League’s student wing in Bangladesh indicates attempts to paralyse the opposition. These attempts to ban the opposition may end up weakening the Awami League. Conducting an election may become a probability once the opposition fails to be in a condition to oppose or compete.

Jamaat-e-Islami was the key player in causing agitation and anarchy in Bangladesh. It led to the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The Supreme Court Chief Justice Obaidul Hassan was forced to resign. The President is the only toothless constitutional authority that survives and signals the existence of the Constitution. Jamaat-e-Islami never believed in the concept of Bangladesh. It never believed in the legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his linguistic conception of the nation. On the contrary, the former never derailed from the religious nationalism of the pre-1970. Its persistence of India hating and religious bigotry and exclusivism has become the hallmark of Bangladesh today.

The suffering of Hindu minorites and their second-class citizenship also illustrate the existence of uneasy calm in the atmosphere. The Durga Puja did not experience the grace and grandeur this year. A film of austerity and calmness was perceptible from the cultural space of Puja Pandals. The vibes were poor. Disenchantment was evident. The puja happened amid the threats of extortion, aggression, indifference and tight security.

Bangladesh is a Muslim majoritarian country where the minority population is on the cusp of constant diminution. The ideology of exceptionalism and insularity grinds the minority to become numerically negligible. Yunus is projected as the face of Bangladesh, and underneath, everything continues as always. Radicalism has increased. Madrasas have been mushrooming over a couple of decades. Fanning the flames of radicalism has finally led to the collapse of Bangladesh and rejection of the great legacy of freedom from the Pakistani atrocities. The ban was lifted on Jamaat-e-Islami by the Yunus’ interim government. The ban in 2013 by the Supreme Court restricted the largest Islamist party,  Jamaat-e-Islami,  not to fight  an election.

Today,  it runs the government and clears its way to fight elections  without opposition. Therefore, its arch enemy Awami League is gradually crippled.  Banning  Awami League’s student wing is a first step in this direction.

The  aftermath of the US  election  with Donald Trump at the helm of things will be very different.  Many geopolitical re-settings are  about to take place.  The US and India relationship is going to  be revamped  under Trump.  During his last presidency, the relationship was emphatic and demonstrative.  The geopolitical constraints were largely eased because of the Modi-Trump  collaboration and astute leadership. Its recurrence is going to be seen soon once the transition period is over and Trump  assumes  the  presidency formally.

Bangladesh’s short-sightedness  in antagonising its all-weather friend India will  not  do any good either.  However, Sheikh Hasina has not resigned formally. She continues to be the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. The shift in  the goalpost of  politics in the US  will not empower the unelected, undemocratic and self-appointed caretaker government in Bangladesh. Constitutional reforms  by the patchwork government will be  impossible.  Any misadventure will invite a good grind.  Therefore,  Yunus refers to  the constitutional phraseologies in congratulating Trump. He knows very well the difficulty  of  carrying out constitutional amendments without consensus and the consent of the elected members of the government and the opposition.  Still, he wanted them through force. Therefore, it sounds farcical to hear the words of harmony and peace from him.

India’s  pre-eminence  as a leader of the global south is irrefutable. Bangladesh found it convenient  to go with China and the  US  under the  Democrats and the deep state  to reduce India’s significance in its neighbourhood. It was pure religious hatred that determined Bangladesh’s spite against India despite the latter’s consistent attempt to improve the former’s economy and standard of life. Bangladesh will soon realise its mistake or rank opportunism in betraying its all-weather friend India.  Under Trump,  Bangladesh will do its course correction and  restore democracy.

Dr.  Jajati K Pattnaik is an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.  Dr.  Chandan K Panda is an Assistant Professor at Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Itanagar. Views espressos in the article are their own.